New study says 32% of smokers will have switched to e-cigs by 2050

man's hands comparing ecigs to combustible cigarettes

A new study published in Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology has predicted that by 2050 the 32% of smokers in the UK that would otherwise have continued smoking will have made the switch to e-cigs.

The prediction was made after scientists at British American Tobacco developed a model which looks at a number of possible scenarios that may occur between 2000 and 2050. There is a baseline scenario in which e-cigarettes are not on the market, and a counterfactual scenario, based on the current trends in which both cigarettes and e-cigs are available to consumers.

The scientists used past trends to help predict the future, which, according to Dr. James Murphy, Head of Reduced Risk Substantiation at British American Tobacco, “is an informative way of assessing population health effects when epidemiological data are not available.”

“Our model shows that when e-cigarettes are available, the effect of ‘normalisation’, through for example, the visibility and familiarization of e-cigarettes versus the ‘de-normalization’ of cigarettes, means that fewer people start smoking and there is a higher rate of successful quit attempts–smokers quit earlier and, although many still relapse, there are significantly more former smokers,” Murphy added.

The model also takes into account the characteristics and behaviors or consumers, such as when they started smoking or whether they are a dual user, are represented through a feedback system, as is the potential effect of smoking normalization on starting and cessation rates. Factors including consumer age, gender, and aging are also taken into account.

“Our results show an overall beneficial effect of e-cigarettes on a population, reducing smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths,” says Murphy.

These results coincide with reports such as the one published by Public Health England, saying that the current expert estimate is that using e-cigarettes is around 95% safer than smoking cigarettes.

Hear from our other iloveecigs.com customers who have already made the switch have to say here.

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